The Paris 2024 Summer Olympics kicked off over the weekend, and markets we're in a celebratory mood. The S&P 500 clawed back some of its losses on Friday, but still finished the week around 1.5% down. The Nasdaq finished 3.2% down. Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 finished the week over 3.1 % up, underlining the current rotation away from tech.

I spent the school holidays in Bali with my family. We travelled through Sanur, Uluwatu, Ubud, and Canggu. We'd never been to Uluwatu before, it was our first time this year. And it was amazing. Beautiful weather, spectacular beaches, really cool vibes, it was incredible.

I started investing just after the dot com bust, right through the commodity boom. I was buying individual stocks and names, mining companies I had never heard of, IPOs at 20 cent issue prices, the major banks, and whatever else was hot at the time. I was in my early 20's. I made a few dollars and felt like a genius. But when it all came crumbling down, I lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. It was an expensive exercise, yet it was the most valuable lesson I ever learnt. One that would not only set me up personally, but also my career and philosophy in wealth management.

I've been thinking a lot about markets lately, the cross currents, the outlook, the implications, the opportunities. I feel as though the broader market, the broader collective, seems to be getting it right - eventually. Yet the boy who cried wolf, well, is still crying wolf.

I remember coming home after work to a house of chaos. Lego all over the floor, washing still sitting in the basket, dishes piled up in the kitchen. The early days with kids for me was really hard. I can only now image how hard it was for my wife back then, I had so many expectations. I was selfish and self centred with absolutely no self awareness at all - not that I think I'm perfect now, far from it.

Over the last 50 years, the average months between peak interest rates in Australia and rate cuts is about 10 months. The shortest duration being in 2008 on the onset of the GFC, and the longest was during 1995-1996 as inflation continued to improve in Australia after peaking in 1995 at 5.1%.